BP Predict’s World Falling Short of Paris Climate Accord

Despite the rate of global carbon emissions having fell sharply, it looks as though the world is falling far short of the 2015 Paris climate goals according to BP’s annual Energy Outlook.

The 20-year outlook report was released Wednesday and it projects global carbon emissions will grow by 0.6 percent a year — compared to 2.1 percent now — but the contention that emissions will still be increasing at all by 2035 places the world well off of its stated goals.

Trump seems to be up in arms in regards to the situation, at one point he stated he’ll keep an “open mind” about the deal while on another occasion he stated that he was considering pulling out. Rex Tillerson, former Exxon Mobil chief and Trump’s pick for secretary of state, indicated that he believes the U.S should stay “at the table” on the agreement.

In order to prevent the world’s average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius, carbon emissions need to fall an estimated 30 percent by 2035 in order to have a good chance of achieving the goals set out in Paris. As such, more governmental intervention and policies are needed, said BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley.

“In BP, we continue to believe that carbon pricing has an important part to play as it provides incentives for everyone — producers and consumers alike — to play their part,” Dudley said.

BP continues to advocate for so-called carbon taxes with an aim toward the world relying more on natural gas because it burns cleaner than coal. As of recent years, BP has invested more in natural gas production.

According to BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale, renewable energy will grow nearly 8 percent a year, nearly quadrupling by 2035, and will by far represent the fastest-growing energy source.

Dale says that natural gas growth will easily outpace oil and coal, and almost two-thirds of the growth comes from the power sector for electricity. The demand of coal worldwide will peak in the mid-2020s as China shifts toward cleaner energy sources. Demand for oil will keep rising, but at a pace of less than 1 percent a year.

The impact of electric vehicles worldwide is still disputable, the growth of which will likely slow oil demand. BP projects electric vehicles globally will increase from 1.2 million in 2015 to 100 million in 2035. While that seems like a huge jump, that would still only represent less than 5 percent of the global vehicle fleet that’s expected to exceed 2 billion by 2035.

Article written by HEI contributor Lydia Ezeakor.

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